Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
During past major market bottoms, the outperformance of small cap stocks has coincided with economic rebounds. The relative returns of small and microcaps appear to be trying to bottom. It is time to check in on how these stocks are doing. One way to monitor the progress of these stocks is to check...
Mid-week market update: Is this market starting a new bear leg? There are numerous signs that may be happening. The SPX violated the trend line of a rising channel while the stochastic recycled from an overbought reading, which is a sell signal. The chart of the equal weighted index, which filters out the effects of...
Remember the Great Financial Crisis (GFC)? As the GFC engulfed the global economy, China stepped up with a shock-and-awe campaign of fiscal and monetary stimulus that stabilized not only the Chinese economy, but global growth. Can China save global growth again? China recently reported surprisingly strong export growth for April, but the closely watched early...
We are continuing our coverage of earnings season during these turbulent times. Last week, we highlighted the disconnect between earnings expectations and valuation (see Earnings Monitor: Reality bites). This week, we are seeing greater signs of stabilization, and hope for the future. Let's begin with the big picture. FactSet reported that the bottom-up consensus forward...
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