Mid-week market update: Instead of repeating endlessly the mantra of how frothy this market has become, I thought it would be worthwhile to take a look at one of the market leaders. Small cap stocks have led the market up during this recovery. On the other hand, the latest BoA Global Fund Manager...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. ...
The investment seasons are changing. Two major factors are emerging in altering the risk and return profiles of multi-asset portfolios in the coming years, rising commodity prices and value investing. There is a strong case to be made that we are on the cusp of a new commodity supercycle. The last time the CRB...
Mid-week market update: Despite my warnings about negative divergence, the S&P 500 continued to rise and it is now testing a key trend line resistance level at about 3920. Much of the negative breadth divergence have disappeared, though Helene Meisler observed that about 35% of the NASDAQ new highs are triple counted. Is...
Q4 earnings season is in full swing, and results are strong. With 59% of the S&P 500 having reported, both the EPS and sales beat rates are well ahead of historical averages. Moreover, forward 12-month EPS estimates surged 3.5% in a single week. As well, estimates are surging across all market cap bands....
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