The investment seasons are changing. Two major factors are emerging in altering the risk and return profiles of multi-asset portfolios in the coming years, rising commodity prices and value investing. There is a strong case to be made that we are on the cusp of a new commodity supercycle. The last time the CRB...
Mid-week market update: Despite my warnings about negative divergence, the S&P 500 continued to rise and it is now testing a key trend line resistance level at about 3920. Much of the negative breadth divergence have disappeared, though Helene Meisler observed that about 35% of the NASDAQ new highs are triple counted. Is...
Q4 earnings season is in full swing, and results are strong. With 59% of the S&P 500 having reported, both the EPS and sales beat rates are well ahead of historical averages. Moreover, forward 12-month EPS estimates surged 3.5% in a single week. As well, estimates are surging across all market cap bands....
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. ...
After last week's wild market swings, it's time to have a sober discussion about risk control. I know that risk control isn't a sexy topic, but better portfolio risk control can lead to better overall returns. The framework of analysis will not be the conventional description of risk as it is stylistically shown...
Our site uses cookies and other technologies so that we, and our partners, can remember you and tailor your user experience on our site. See our disclaimer page on our privacy policy, how we manage cookies, and how to opt out. Further use of this site will be considered consent.
