A surprise from rotational analysis

One of my tools in my market analysis toolbox is leadership analysis. In particular, I found that in bull phases, it pays to buy the market leaders (see Momentum + Bull market = Chocolate + Peanut butter). I was playing around with Relative Rotation Graphs, or RRG, the other day and what I found was a surprise....

Demographics and gold: Something doesn’t add up

This is another in a series of occasional posts on quantitative analysis. I am indebted to Josh Brown for pointing me to an article by Larry Swedroe, which discusses a study on demographics and real interest rates. While I found that I can derive significant insights from single variable studies like these, the world is...

Waiting for Santa Claus

Trend Model signal summary Trend Model signal: Neutral Trading model: Bullish The Trend Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity price. In essence, it seeks to answer the question, "Is the trend in the global economy expansion (bullish) or contraction (bearish)?" My inner...

Investment insights when giving thanks

In Canada, we had our Thanksgiving a month ago (because the growing season is shorter and it makes no sense to have Thanksgiving in November when it's freezing in much of the country). Nevertheless, in the spirit of American Thanksgiving, I reflected on what to give thanks about. In light of the events in Paris...

The right way to ride Buffett’s coattails

It isn't often that we get to participate in buying stocks at the levels that Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway bought them at. Most of the time, the public finds out in regulatory filings after the fact and the stocks have already moved up. Here is one exception that I discovered. In August 2013, Berkshire disclosed...