Mid-week market update: As stock prices have recovered strongly off the Brexit panic bottom to make a new all-time high, there are numerous signs that the market is ready to take a breather. In all likelihood, a period of sideways consolidation or minor pullback is on the horizon. Traders in a crowded long...
When I was a boy, I can remember the Zero Population Growth (ZPG) movement, which was a response to the Club of Rome's Limits to Growth Mathusian thesis of "the world has limited resources, but human population is rising exponentially and therefore ecological disaster looms". Somewhere along the way, birth rates fell in response to global...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
As we await China's Q2 GDP report in the face of sharply lower trade figures, it's useful to ponder once again the China tail-risk question. For years, analysts have been warning about impending doom in China because of the growing mountain of unsustainable debt (see Kyle Bass, Jim Chanos, Andy Xie and George Soros). ...
Mid-week market update: The SPX has staged an upside breakout to new all-time highs and indicators are looking overbought. Now the key question for traders is whether current conditions represent an extended market that`s ripe for a pullback, or does do these conditions represent a “good” overbought condition that accompanies a momentum surge, which leads to...
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