Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Now that Donald Trump has become the presumptive Republican nominee for President, Wall Street is scrambling to model how a Trump White House may affect capital markets. A recent Bloomberg article summarized the consensus: Bond market: Expect rising yields from upward pressures on term premium. Currencies: Rising yields will put a bid under the USD....
Mid-week market update: I told you that there would be volatility (see Numerous wildcards add up to ST volatility). In light of signs of stretched positioning, the prudent course of action for traders is to step to the sidelines. Here are the different sources of volatility that are buffeting the markets. ...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
The problems keep piling up in China. Weakening demographics, as her population shrank for a second consecutive year. Weak consumer spending. A record property downturn. Rising trade tensions. The drip-drip-drip of these glitches culminated in a massive stock market wipeout as over US$6 trillion has been wiped from the combined capitalization of the Chinese...
Mid-week market update: The S&P 500 has been riding its upper Bollinger Band. Historically, upper BB rides haven't been all that bearish, but the current episode is occurring against a backdrop of negative RSI divergences. While the S&P 500 may be on an upper BB ride, it promises to be a roller coaster....
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Exhibitions of powerful price momentum are rare. Since the market bottom in 2002, there have been eight occasions when the percentage of S&P 500 above their 50 dma has surged from below 15% to over 90% in a brief period. That latest episode occurred when stock prices soared off the bottom in October 2023. These...
Mid-week market update: I had been expecting a choppy January for stock prices, and current market action has not disappointed. Investors came into 2024 all bulled up, but rising rates eventually spooked stock prices. It all came to a head with Fed Governor Waller's speech, in which he stated that the Fed is pivoting to...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
As the 10-year Treasury yield flirts with the 4% level and the yield curve steepens from its inverted condition, it’s worthwhile to keep in mind that the universe is unfolding as it should. Monetary conditions are tight, inflation is moderating, the jobs market, though tight, is weakening, and the economy is chugging along with no...
Mid-week market update: There is a time for an aggressive posture in positioning and there is a time for patience. This is a time for investors to be patient. In the aftermath of the rally off the October bottom, the S&P 500 is consolidating its gains after breaking out through resistance at 4600 to...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
The S&P 500 staged an upside breakout in December through a cup and handle pattern but it was rejected at all-time-high resistance, which is a somewhat disappointing development. Instead of worrying about whether it can rally through resistance, here is another index that staged a cup and handle breakout, but to all-time-highs. It’s...
Mid-week market update: I know that this is a trite expression, but the easy money has been made. The rally off the October bottom has been astounding. My trading model was fortunate enough to spot the exact day of the bottom when insiders started buying an oversold market. The rally enjoyed further tailwinds in...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
I am not fond of the ritual of “year ahead” forecasts. Street strategists’ forecasts are far more dispersed compared to past years. The 2024 year-end target for the S&P 500 varies from 4200 to 5200. So let’s make this brief. Analysis from Ryan Detrick of Carson Group shows that the S&P 500 rises an...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: The recent stock market rally has been astounding. Sentiment readings on the Fear & Greed Index surged from extreme fear in October to extreme greed in less than two months. While extremely fearful sentiment can be useful buy signals, extreme bullish sentiments are condition indicators and inexact sell signals. This leads to...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
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