Mid-week market update: After the market reaches its upper Bollinger Band, it isn't unusual at all for it to consolidate sideways and drift for a few days before making the next move. As the chart below shows, this has happened four other times (grey shaded boxes) in the last six months. The latest episode is...
Artificial Intelligence (AI) related stocks have been on an absolute tear. The Magnificent Seven, which is one proxy for AI plays, has beaten the S&P 500 for six consecutive quarters. But the degree of outperformance is decelerating. This looks like the early stages of an AI hangover. I believe AI stocks are overhyped...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Signs of technical deteriorations had been appearing last week, but NVIDIA’s earnings report saved the day. The earnings report can best be described as a blowout. The results beat Street expectations on all metrics and the company guided upwards. There wasn’t anything not to dislike about the report. As a consequence, the Semiconductor Index, which...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: One of the key indicators I have been monitoring for the health of the market is the NASDAQ 100 (NDX), which is a proxy for large-cap technology stocks. So far, the NDX has been testing an important rising relative uptrend. If the relative uptrend were to decisively break down, it...
Macro Charts recently observed that S&P 500 DSI is turning down from an overbought extreme. Historically, that has led to either sharp corrections or a prolonged period of choppiness. In light of these conditions, I have been asked about downside equity risk. Is this the start of a significant downdraft? How far can...
Mid-week market update: I have written about how Big Tech is dominating the market. Here is another perspective of how tech stocks are eating the market. The combined market cap of FANGMAN (Facebook, Apple, Nvidia, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Netflix) is reached all-time highs and nearing a total of $8 trillion. The angst over...
While the adage that the stock market isn't the economy and vice versa is true. one of the puzzles facing investors is why the US equity market testing its all-time highs even as the economy suffered its worst setback since the Great Depression. This market seems like a Potemkin Village, which shows an external façade of...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The " Ultimate Market Timing Model " is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each...
I normally don't comment on individual stocks because I don't have the resources to analyze a zillion companies in detail, but here is a Black Friday thought on Apple, which kicked off a revolution in consumer electronics and created new product categories when it unveiled its iPods, IPads, and iPhones. The share price of Apple...
I had been meaning to write about this topic, but Barron's beat me to it with a terrific article called "Breaking up Tech" which detailed the anti-trust vulnerability of Big Tech companies. The Barron's article stands in direct contrast to a recent Josh Brown post which postulated that investors are rushing into the technology sector as...
