You can tell a lot about the character of a market by the way it reacts to the news. Bespoke reported a downbeat market reaction to earnings and sales beats, which is disappointing, "The 163 companies that have beaten both top and bottom line estimates this earnings season have averaged a one-day decline of 0.23% on...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
As global markets have been jittery on the prospect of military conflict in Ukraine, Ben Carlson showed a table of the regular nature of US stock market drawdowns, which is a feature of equity risk. I am also reminded of the quip by British banker Nathan Rothchild, "Buy to the sound of cannons,...
Mid-week market update: The stock market has been extremely oversold for the past few days, but one element had been missing for the short-term, namely a sentiment capitulation and wash-out, which may have finally appeared. The latest Business Week cover may be the classic contrarian magazine cover indicator of a developing bottom. ...
As the stock market looks forward to another exciting week of volatility, the technical damage suffered by the market is quite severe. Nevertheless, investors need to take a deep breath and ask, "What's the market pricing in?" The three major factors I consider in my analysis are: Earnings and valuation; Fed policy; and...
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