Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Wall Street is full of adages. Technical analysts are fond of, "Price leads fundaments" as a way of dismissing macro and fundamental analysis. But traders are also warned, "Don't fight the Fed". A vast gulf is appearing between bullish technicals and macro concerns. The bulls, who are mainly technicians, point to strong price momentum,...
Mid-week market update; The S&P 500 has undergone a powerful rally off June's bottom, but it's now approaching technical resistance in the form of a 200 dma and a falling trend line. In addition, the market is overbought as measured by the 5 and 14-day RSIs, much in the manner of early November 2021. ...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
The mood has changed on Wall Street. The WSJ declared last week that the NASDAQ is back in a bull market. The number of "new bull market" stories have skyrocketed in recent days. Suddenly, chartists on my social media feed are full of "if this index rises to X, or this indicator gets...
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