Is there an inflation threat in your future?

On Valentine's Day, the European Central Bank tweeted a poem to underscore its commitment to fighting inflation.     The ECB tweet is also indicative of the tight monetary policy undertaken by most major central banks. Only two central banks, the BoJ and the PBoC, are meaningful suppliers of global liquidity. The rest are raising...

Sound the tactical all-clear

Mid-week market update: Last week, the usually reliable S&P 500 Intermediate Term Breadth Momentum Oscillator (ITBM) flashed a tactical sell signal when its 14-day RSI recycled from overbought to neutral.     It's time to sound the tactical all-clear in the aftermath of the sell signal.     Bottoming signals One reader alerted me that...

Cautious signs of a bullish revival

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Asset...

Why you should fade the NASDAQ surge

The recent market rally has been led by a resurgence in large-cap NASDAQ stocks. This leadership has become overly extended, as evidenced by the rising divergence between their relative performance and the 10-year Treasury yield. A detailed factor and sector performance analysis reveals an underlying trend in favor of cyclical exposure.       Growth...