China has been undergoing a series of stop-start growth spurts mini-cycles, courtesy of credit driven stimulus programs (chart via RBS): The size of the latest Q1 financing induced boom was extraordinary, as it hinted at panic by the authorities. For some perspective, credit expansion in Q1 2016 was somewhere between the GDP of...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Mid-week market update: Regular readers know that I have been bullish on the commodity and reflation trade (see A possible generational low in oil and energy stocks and The road to a 2016 market top). On the weekend, I postulated three separate short-term scenarios for the stock market (see *Sigh* Another growth scare): The growth...
Let me make myself very clear. As a Canadian, I have no horse in the American presidential race, but Donald Trump is a clown. He is a loose cannon on deck. He could also become the next president of the United States. So when does the market start to discount the potential effects of a...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
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