Secrets of stable returns in a chaotic bear market

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

Peak populism?

Technical analysts often use the magazine cover indicator as a contrarian indicator. When an idea has become so commonplace that it becomes the cover of a major magazine, the public is all-in and it's time to sell. The Economist reported on an ad hoc study by Greg Marks and Brent Donnelly at Citigroup using covers...

A better way to trade the China slowdown

China has been undergoing a series of stop-start growth spurts mini-cycles, courtesy of credit driven stimulus programs (chart via RBS):     The size of the latest Q1 financing induced boom was extraordinary, as it hinted at panic by the authorities. For some perspective, credit expansion in Q1 2016 was somewhere between the GDP of...