Peak populism?

In Free by Cam Hui

Technical analysts often use the magazine cover indicator as a contrarian indicator. When an idea has become so commonplace that it becomes the cover of a major magazine, the public is all-in and it’s time to sell. The Economist reported on an ad hoc study by Greg Marks and Brent Donnelly at Citigroup using covers from The Economist and did …

A better way to trade the China slowdown

In Free by Cam Hui

China has been undergoing a series of stop-start growth spurts mini-cycles, courtesy of credit driven stimulus programs (chart via RBS):     The size of the latest Q1 financing induced boom was extraordinary, as it hinted at panic by the authorities. For some perspective, credit expansion in Q1 2016 was somewhere between the GDP of Indonesia and Mexico:     …

How to trade the Brexit referendum

In Free by Cam Hui

I have tried to refrain from comment on the Brexit referendum vote until the situation had settled down a bit. Now that the campaign is in full swing, it`s time to consider how the markets might react as we approach the June 23 vote. CNBC recently summarized the debate this way: First, the economy, and whether positives like free trade …