Has the Fed managed to achieve a soft landing? If so, Jerome Powell will go down in Federal Reserve history as a legend, and one of the greatest Fed Chairs who occupied that position. There is some cause for optimism. The latest flash PMIs show that U.S. and China manufacturing PMI on the rebound,...
Mid-week market update: There was a lot of angst last week about how Treasury market, whose yields had been rising steadily, was the main driver of risk appetite. When I saw this cartoon circulating, I thought that it marked the top in yields as a contrarian indicator. Indeed, the bond market rallied when Bill Ackman...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Oil prices have jumped over $6 a barrel since the Hamas attack on Israel as a geopolitical risk premium became embedded in the oil price. The surprise attack brought up memories of the Yom Kippur War 50 years ago, in which the armies of Egypt and Syria launched a simultaneous surprise attack on Yom Kippur...
Mid-week market update: The S&P 500 bounce stalled at the 4380-4400 resistance zone, which is just below its 50 dma. I continue to believe that the next major move is up. Here’s why. Bond market tantrum Stock prices have been affected by the tantrum in the bond market. The price of...
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