Buy the dip!

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...

What I learned about Fed policy this week

Rather than indulge in instant analysis, I wanted to give myself a few days to reflect on Janet Yellen's speech on Monday (see full transcript). In doing so, I learned a number of things about Fed policy that I didn't know before: How much does the Fed want to raise before it considers rates to...

Adventures in Option-Land

Mid-week market update: I like to monitor the option market from a sentiment modeling perspective because, unlike surveys which can swing all over the place, the option market is a forum where people are putting real money on the line. Even as the stock market has been slowly grinding upwards, the option market has been showing...

Get ready for a market of maximum frustration

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model is...