I have spent a lot of time in these pages writing about the influence of macro-economic factors on market analysis. Indeed, Matt King at Citigroup recently highlighted the growing importance of macro factors on the equity market (chart via Bloomberg): [Please see Bloomberg story for chart] Here are three key macro factors that I...
Mid-week market update: In the wake of Federal Reserve vice chair Stanley Fischer's remarks about Friday's Job Report, the market is mainly playing a waiting game for the results of that announcement. However, there are signs that the Jobs Report may be setting up for a negative surprise which could be bullish for bond and...
In my last post (see The roadmap to a 2017 market top) I wrote that one possible bear market trigger would be a debt crisis in China. In response, an alert reader sent me this Bloomberg tweet and asked for my comment. How bad could a China debt crisis get? In this post,...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
The markets have been nervous as we await Janet Yellen's speech at Jackson Hole. Now that the agenda for the Jackson Hole symposium has been released, I believe that Yellen is unlikely to announce any major shift in monetary policy in her speech. The intent of the Jackson Hole symposium is for Federal Reserve officials...
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