In Ben Bernanke's famous 2002 helicopter speech, he made the point that the Fed has numerous tools to fight deflation, even if interest rates was at the zero bound: The U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
The latest Chinese GDP release came in right in line with expectations at 6.7%, but the growth came at a cost. I had written about this problem in my previous post, Big Trouble with 5-year China?). The Chinese authorities appear to be up to their old tricks again of using credit to drive growth, which is...
Mid-week market update: Let me make myself absolutely clear, I remain intermediate term bullish on US equities based on the points I made in past remarks (see Equities in a macro sweet spot and The trend is your friend (breadth, seasonality and sentiment too)). As the SPX struggles with a technical resistance level at about 2080,...
A reader raised a question after my generally bullish weekend post (see Equities in a macro sweet spot). The latest report from Barron's of insider activity had shown that readings had risen up into sell signal territory. How worried should investors be about this development? Insiders tend not to be short-term traders and...
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