Things you don’t see at market bottoms: Retail stampede edition

It is said that while bottoms are events, but tops are processes. Translated, markets bottom out when panic sets in, and therefore they can be more easily identifiable. By contrast, market tops form when a series of conditions come together, but not necessarily all at the same time. My experience has shown that overly bullish...

Could a Trump trade war spark a bear market?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

My 2017 report card

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

What you should and shouldn’t worry about in 2018

The end of December is filled with analyst forecasts for the following year. I would like to take this time to debunk some of the doomster myths about the stock market, and to outline some of the true risks that I worry about in the year to come. One of the major myths that have...