Imagining the next bear market

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

A summer reading list

I will be off for a few days in Oregon, where I will (hopefully) observe the Great American Eclipse of 2017. The regular weekend commentary will continue to be published, but posting will be lighter than usual as internet access is expected to be spotty. Before I leave, I leave you with a summer reading...

Bought for a good time, not a long time

Mid-week market update: Last Friday, subscribers received an email alert indicating that the trading model had flipped from short to long. In my weekend commentary (see "Fire and Fury" is hard) that my inner trader expected "the time horizon of that trade to be not much more than a week." I am reminded of the...

“Fire and Fury” is hard

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

Correction ahead

Mid-week market update: Narrow trading ranges are often technical signs of sideways consolidation, followed by further upside. In this case, bulls are likely to be disappointed, as market internals point to a correction ahead.     I am reiterating my tactically cautious view that has been in place for the last two weeks (see Curb...