September uncertainties

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

The surprising conclusion from top-down vs. bottom-up EPS analysis

Mid-week market update: Business Insider recently highlighted an earnings warning from Strategas Research Partners about possible earnings disappointment for the remainder of 2017 and early 2018. Expect a deceleration in EPS growth because of base effects: A big part of Strategas' argument stems from the fact that the period against which current earnings are compared...

Is the Fed tightening into a stalling economy?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

Trumponomics meets Mr. Market

Mid-week market update: As the stock market staged a bounce yesterday, it was still exhibiting a pattern of lower highs and lower lows. After the close, the market ran into a dose of Trumponomics that spooked the market and pushed the index below its 50 day moving average.     Notwithstanding Trump's fiery rhetoric about...