Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Remember the story of the Sorcerer's Apprentice from Fantasia (click link for YouTube video)? Mickey Mouse played the role of a sorcerer's apprentice tasked to carry buckets of water. Instead of doing it himself, he stole the sorcerer's hat and animated a broomstick to carry the buckets for him. To speed up the work, he...
Mid-week market update: Bloomberg reported that BAML strategist Michael Harnett wrote a report back on December 12 forecasting a melt-up. He believed the market's gains would be front loaded in 2020. and he projected an S&P 500 target of 3,333 by March 3. The index reached that level intra-day today, and it's still January. Are...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Callum Thomas recently highlighted an observation from BAML that the market cap of Apple (AAPL) is now larger than the entire energy sector. AAPL is now the largest stock in the index, but its weight at 4.5% is not especially extreme in the context of the historical experience. The fact that AAPL's market cap has eclipsed...
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