Is the bull on his last legs? It is starting to look that way. I alerted readers to an unconfirmed bullish monthly MACD buy signal in late July (see A (deceptive) long term buy signal). The buy signal was confirmed in late October by both the Wilshire 5000 and non-US markets (see Buy the breakout,...
Mid-week market update: The hourly SPX chart shows that the index rallied strongly on Monday. The rally filled two downside gaps and it is testing the 50% retracement level.. While many of the short-term models are screaming "buy", there are contrary indicators and models that suggest caution. Even though my inner trader has largely...
The data points closely watched this past weekend were the releases of China's Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) readings. On Saturday, China reported that its February manufacturing PMI had missed expectations and skidded to 35.7, and services PMI also missed and printed at 29.6. Both readings were all-time lows. The Caixin private sector PMI...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Remember the Lehman Crisis? The failure of Lehman Brothers marked the start of the Great Financial Crisis that destabilized and almost brought down the global financial system. What we are seeing is a Lehman Crisis of a different sort. The Lehman Crisis of 2008 was characterized by financial institutions unwilling to lend to each other...
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