In my last post (see 2020 bounce = 1987, or 1929), I had been searching for a template for the current bear market. I had suggested in the past that the roots of this bear has thematic similarities to 2008 (see A Lehman Crisis of a different sort). Today, health authorities are urging the use...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
In the past week, I have had several discussions with investors about my recession call (see OK, I'm calling it). Since the publication of that note, Bloomberg Economics' US recession probability estimate spiked recently up to 55%. The odds of a 2020 recession at betting sites are even higher. To reiterate, I would like to...
Mid-week market update: My last post (see OK, I'm calling it) in which I called a recession received a lot of attention. As recessions tend to be bull market killers, the challenge for investors and traders is to manage their investments during a recessionary bear market. In the short run, the SPX is testing the...
While I may be jumping the gun on my model readings, I'm calling a recession. Remember when oil prices tanked in the second half of 2014? The economy experienced a shallow industrial recession in 2015. While history doesn't repeat but rhymes, the price war that erupted over the weekend between Russia and OPEC...
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