Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: Regular readers will know that I have been relatively cautious on the stock market outlook for several weeks, and my inner trader has been short the market since September 13, 2019 when the SPX was over 3000. The index violated the 50 dma, broke support at 2960 and filled the gap at...
BLS will be publish the September Jobs Report this Friday. This report will be important for a number of reasons, and it will answer some key questions for investors and policy makers. First, the unemployment rate has been troughing. If history is any guide, a rising unemployment rate after a trough has been signals of...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: I have been writing in these pages about the remarkable muted equity market volatility. Indeed, Luke Kawa observed on Monday that realized volatility had fallen to historical lows. Recent developments indicate that volatility may be about to return to the markets. This reminds me of the lyrics of a song that I...
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