Risk takers are fond of the line, "No guts, no glory". With that in mind, I present three cases of risks, and possible opportunities. The Turkey in the FX coalmine In late June, I highlighted analysis from Research Affiliates of country values by CAPE relative to their own history. At the top of the...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
While the adage that the stock market isn't the economy and vice versa is true. one of the puzzles facing investors is why the US equity market testing its all-time highs even as the economy suffered its worst setback since the Great Depression. This market seems like a Potemkin Village, which shows an external façade of...
Mid-week market update: As the market tests resistance at the old highs, is sentiment greedy enough? The Fear and Greed Index stands at 73, and recently peaked at 75. While readings at these levels can indicate high risk environments, they have also been inexact market timing signals. Andrew Thrasher pointed out that VIX...
Q2 earnings season is nearly done. So far 89% of the market has reported. FactSet reported the EPS beat rate fell to 83% from 84% the previous week. The sales beat rate was fell to 64% from 69% the previous week. Both the EPS and sales beat rates are ahead of their 5-year averages. The bottom-up...
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