Mid-week market update: Is time to sound the all-clear? The market staged a relief rally after last week's weakness. Is the stock market ready to resume its uptrend? A rally to new highs from these levels is unlikely. Last week's pullback inflicted significant technical damage that, at a minimum, a period of sideways consolidation and...
As the FOMC conducts its two-day meeting after its big reveal of its shift in monetary policy, Fed watcher Tim Duy thinks that we won't get much more in the way of details from the Fed after this meeting: The odds favor the Fed maintains the status quo at this week’s meeting. It does not...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Macro Charts recently observed that S&P 500 DSI is turning down from an overbought extreme. Historically, that has led to either sharp corrections or a prolonged period of choppiness. In light of these conditions, I have been asked about downside equity risk. Is this the start of a significant downdraft? How far can...
Mid-week market update: While it may seem like the Apocalypse for people trading the momentum FANG+ stocks, this is not the Apocalypse. Sure, the market has violated its rising trend line, but this trend break is nothing like the COVID Crash experienced earlier this year. Before the bears get all excited, there are...
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