The Fed has clearly pivoted. It indicated at its December FOMC meeting that, for all intents and purposes, it was done hiking and the “dot plot” is projecting three quarter-point rate cuts in 2024 against a soft landing backdrop. Fed Chair Jerome Powell was given ample opportunity to push back against the dovish narrative. Instead,...
Mid-week market update: The Fed delivered a dovish pause today. In addition, Powell was given opportunities to push back with bearish scenarios, such as raising concerns over the recent risk-on rally as a sign that financial conditions are loosening, or the elevated levels of super-core inflation, but he declined to do so. It is becoming...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
The Zweig Breadth Thrust buy signal in early November sparked a price surge and a price momentum chase. Already, the S&P 500 made a late-day charge above 4600 for a new recovery high. The price momentum factor is defined as stocks that beat the market continue to beat the market. The red line in...
Mid-week market update: Another day, another sideways consolidation price action in the S&P 500, which is typical of seasonal pattern in the first half of December. Beneath the surface, I am seeing numerous signs that the market is still poised for the year-end rally. Supportive sentiment First of all, sentiment models...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Gold bulls became very excited when gold prices tested overhead resistance at the 2000–2100 level. In the past, such tests had been met with selling pressure, but technical analysts would interpret a definitive breakout at these levels as opening the door to significant upside. Moreover, the bottom panel of the accompanying chart shows that...
Mid-week market update: I recently pointed out that the S&P 500 was becoming overbought and poised for a consolidation or pullback. The 14-day RSI had reached the overbought zone and the percentage of S&P 500 stocks above their 20 dma exceeded 90%. The market tried to rally today, but failed. Is this the correction? ...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Much has happened since my last global market review. Investors saw a bond market tantrum, followed by a down yield reversal and a risk-on rally in asset prices. Willie Delwiche at Hi Mount Research put the equity price surge into perspective when he observed that 94% of global markets in the MSCI All-Country World Index...
Mid-week market update: The “three white soldiers” candlestick pattern is made up of three long white candles, and typically occurs after a falling price trend. It is indicative of strong price momentum after a price reversal. This pattern is evident in the weekly S&P 500 chart shown below. Usually, the market consolidates sideways after the...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
The markets took a risk-on tone in the wake of a softer-than-expected CPI report, followed by a tame PPI report and strong retail sales print. Even before these reports, Mohamed El-Erian issued a warning about the goldilocks scenario of lower oil prices and falling bond yields. Is market psychology in a “bad news...
Mid-week market update: Until yesterday’s market melt-up, it seemed that individual investors were fighting the rally, which is a contrarian bullish sign. I noticed it on the weekend when the level of engagement on my bearish tweets were an order of magnitude higher than my bullish ones. In addition, the New York Fed’s recent consumer...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
The S&P 500 exhibited a surprise price reversal on the weekly chart. After violating an uptrend line that stretches back to the COVID Crash bottom which scared the living daylights out of a lot of investors, the index staged an upside reversal while the weekly stochastic recycled from oversold to neutral, which has been a...
Mid-week market update: I have written extensively about the Zweig Breadth Thrust and its bullish implications in the past few days. In case you haven’t seen the numerous historical return studies floating around on the internet, here is one from Ryan Detrick of Carson Group. In almost instance, the market cools off for...
I would like to address the feedback from my recent publication, Nine reasons why this rally has legs. Some readers questioned my change in tone in the interpretation of the Zweig Breadth Thrust buy signal. As a reminder, the ZBT is a price momentum signal. It is triggered when breadth indicators rise from oversold...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
There was some consternation among equity bulls when the S&P 500 violated its 200 dma as it could have been the signal of a major bearish episode. Technical analysts offered some relief when they pointed out that it’s the slope of the 200 dma that matters. The historical evidence shows violations of the 200...
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