Stock market pullbacks happen. The normal equity risk of pullbacks is the price investors pay for better long-term performance. But a recent analysis by Oxford Economics found that the average S&P 500 pullback during non-recessionary periods is -15.4% and -36% during recessions. Here is why this matters for equity investors. The recent peak-to-trough...
Mid-week market update: How far can the market rally run? The S&P 500 weakened in January and bottomed last week. It has mounted a strong relief rally, but it is testomg a key Fibonacci retracement level at about 4590 and a resistance zone at 4600-4630. Is this the start of a V-shaped market...
You can tell a lot about the character of a market by the way it reacts to the news. Bespoke reported a downbeat market reaction to earnings and sales beats, which is disappointing, "The 163 companies that have beaten both top and bottom line estimates this earnings season have averaged a one-day decline of 0.23% on...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
As global markets have been jittery on the prospect of military conflict in Ukraine, Ben Carlson showed a table of the regular nature of US stock market drawdowns, which is a feature of equity risk. I am also reminded of the quip by British banker Nathan Rothchild, "Buy to the sound of cannons,...
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