Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Many technical analysts turned excited in late August when the percentage of S&P 500 stocks above their 50 dma surged from below 5% to over 90%. Historically, such breadth and momentum thrusts have signaled a fresh bull market with a track record of 100% accuracy. Since then, the percentage of stocks above their...
Mid-week market update: Before going to bed last night, I check the overnight market and saw that S&P 500 futures were down as much as -1% and thought, "Here we go again!" I woke to see that the BOE had committed to buying Gilts "on whatever scale is necessary" which sparked a risk-on stampede. The...
As we approach Q3 earnings season, the Street cut the bottom-up S&P 500 forward 12-month EPS estimates by an estimated -0.41% as recession anxiety begins to rise. The good news is the market is trading at a forward P/E of 15.8, which is below its 5- and 10-year averages. In light of the...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
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