Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Richard Nixon's Treasury Secretary John Connally famously said in 1971, "The dollar is our currency, but it is your problem". Nixon's actions at the time closed the gold window, imposed a number of tariffs, and drove the USD down in the aftermath of the collapse of the Bretton Woods Agreement of fixed exchange rates. ...
Mid-week market update: The stock market has been exhibiting a series of positive breadth and momentum divergences as the S&P 500 weakened, but the recent main driver of risk appetite has been the fixed income and currency markets. Do divergences matter anymore? External drivers The divergences matter less inasmuch as the stocks...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
The recent OPEC+ decision to cut oil output by 2 million barrels per day is giving me a case of PTSD from a Yom Kippur long ago. In October 1973, the stock market was just getting over a case of Nifty Fifty growth stock mania. Arab armies, led by Egypt and Syria, made a surprise...
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