Mid-week market update: Yesterday's hot CPI report finally convinced the market that the Fed is serious. For weeks one Fed official after another gave the same message: We will raise rates to about 4% and hold them there while we evaluate the inflation picture. We don't want a repeat of the 1970s when the Fed...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
A number of readers asked me to comment on Michael Burry's forecast of a crash, according to a report from Business Insider. Doomsday is finally here, he hinted in a since-deleted tweet this week. The fund manager of "The Big Short" fame shared a screenshot of a S&P 500 chart, showing the benchmark stock-market...
Mid-week market update: I suggested on the weekend that the stock market was oversold and poised for a short-term rally (see How to trade the failed breadth thrust). The rally seems to have arrived. The weakness in the S&P 500 has been stunning as it sliced through multiple levels of support like a hot...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
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