Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
The recent OPEC+ decision to cut oil output by 2 million barrels per day is giving me a case of PTSD from a Yom Kippur long ago. In October 1973, the stock market was just getting over a case of Nifty Fifty growth stock mania. Arab armies, led by Egypt and Syria, made a surprise...
Mid-week market update: I received a number of questions from readers who were positioned for the monster rally that began on Monday, "What's your upside target?" The answer is, "It depends." Make no mistake, the market was washed out and oversold when the rally began, but it was sparked by a rebound in bond...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Many technical analysts turned excited in late August when the percentage of S&P 500 stocks above their 50 dma surged from below 5% to over 90%. Historically, such breadth and momentum thrusts have signaled a fresh bull market with a track record of 100% accuracy. Since then, the percentage of stocks above their...
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