The Chinese authorities were stuck between a rock and a hard place. On one hand, COVID caseloads were skyrocketing; on the other hand, after two years of a series of on-again-off-again of lockdowns, it was unsurprising that Chinese citizens, many of them young, got a case of cabin fever and protested the government's COVID policies...
Mid-week market update: In the long awaited Powell speech, the Fed Chair signaled, "It makes sense to moderate the pace of our rate increases...[and] the time for moderating the pace of rate increases may come as soon as the December meeting". The market reacted with a risk-on tone and began to discount a series of...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
I highlighted a widening gulf between the technical and macro outlook in August (see "Price leads fundamentals", or "Don't fight the Fed"?). At the time, the technical indicators were wildly bullish because of strong price momentum, while the macro outlook was cautious. The macro view eventually won out. A similar divide may be appearing...
Mid-week market update: I thought that I would publish an early mid-week market update in light of the shortened US Thanksgiving trading week. As the S&P 500 consolidates in a narrow range between 3900 and 4000, things are breaking beneath the surface. Let's begin the analysis at the extreme risk part of the market....
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