Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
China’s leadership was caught off-guard in 2016 because few people expected Trump to win the election. This time, Beijing has had plenty of warning, and it is far better prepared for Trade War 2.0. The key difference is the divergence in the path of economic growth, as signaled by the bond market. Chinese 10-year...
Mid-week market update: When we last left the stock market on the weekend, the bulls were given a homework assignment (see A failed Santa rally, what now?). The S&P 500 and Russell 2000 had to stage upside breakout through the falling dotted trend line. While the S&P 500 briefly broke out, it retreated yesterday...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
The year started with a bang. Investor hopes were high on the expectation of the implementation of Trump’s pro-business and pro-growth policies, but stock prices struggled and ended last week in the red. According to FactSet, the bottom-up aggregated S&P 500 target price for year-end 2025 is 6,678.18. But in the last 20 years,...
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