It was a closely watched FOMC meeting. The Fed raised rates by a quarter-point, which was widely anticipated, and signaled that it would likely raise another quarter-point before it's done. It was interpreted as a dovish hike. The Fed also published a Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), also known as the "dot plot". In the...
Mid-week market update: Investors and traders have been waiting for the moment of the FOMC announcement and subsequent press conference. How does the Fed respond to the twin challenges of a banking John Authers highlighted analysis from Bespoke indicating the market was entering a period of extreme volatility in Fed Funds futures. The...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
In response to the recent financial turmoil, Fed Funds futures is discounting a 25 bps hike at next week's FOMC meeting, followed by a brief peak and rapid rate cuts for the rest of the year. Are those market expectations realistic? How will the Fed navigate between the Scylla of inflation and Charybdis...
Mid-week market update: Just when you thought the Treasury Department, FDIC, and the Fed had the SVB debacle fixed, the market plunged today on the news that the largest shareholder of Credit Suisse had declined to inject further equity into the troubled bank. This is what a bank panic looks like. Financial stocks in the...
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