Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Ever since the NYSE Composite monthly MACD flashed a long-term buy signal, I have been monitoring the risks to the bull. Past positive MACD crossovers have signaled long-term resilient equity bull markets and such signals have marked durable advances, which are subject to the normal equity risk of minor corrections without significant bearish episodes. ...
Mid-week market update: I have been calling for a relief rally, followed by a deeper correction (see Why I am both bullish and bearish). The relief rally seems to have arrived as the S&P 500 breached the upper trend line of a falling channel while exhibiting improvements in new 52-week high breadth. How...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Periodically, the market is rattled by a “China is slowing” narrative. As the accuracy of official Chinese statistics can be doubtful, the real-time market reaction indicates nervousness, but no panic. The performance of the equity markets of China and her major trading partners relative to MSCI All-Country World Index (ACWI) shows that their trends are...
Our site uses cookies and other technologies so that we, and our partners, can remember you and tailor your user experience on our site. See our disclaimer page on our privacy policy, how we manage cookies, and how to opt out. Further use of this site will be considered consent.