On the verge of a long-term buy signal

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The...

Could a credit event derail the equity bull?

Is the soft landing here? Wall Street strategists have been racing to reduce their recession odds in the last week. More importantly, Fed Chair Powell revealed during the post-FOMC meeting press conference that Fed staff had upgraded its forecast from a mild recession in H2 2023 to no recession.   In the past few weeks,...

It’s not just about the Fed

Mid-week market update: The market reaction to the FOMC decision was mostly a yawn. The Fed raised rates by a quarter-point, which was expected, and Powell refused to commit to further hikes while repeating his data dependency mantra.  As a consequence, the S&P 500 was mostly unchanged from before the decision to after the close....

A new cyclical bull?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...