Mid-week market update: On the weekend, I stated that my base case was the S&P 500 decline would stop at August low support of 4350, but there was a 25% chance that it would test the next trend line support at roughly 4200, or the 200 dma. Now that we are nearing that level, what’s...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Last week, I pointed out that the Citi Inflation Surprise Index was turning up around the world. While one month doesn’t make a trend, what if the Fed is making a different kind of policy error? Instead of over-tightening into a recession, what if the U.S. economy achieves a soft landing or no landing and...
Mid-week market update: It was a hawkish pause. The Fed’s decided to leave rates unchanged, but in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), it acknowledged that the economy is strong than its June projections. More importantly, the Fed Funds target for the end of this year remains unchanged, indicating that FOMC members expect another quarter-point...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
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