In a recent post, I was relatively upbeat about the near term market outlook but warned that the next recession could be very ugly (see A major bear market in 2016?). To explain, I have found three possible time bombs that are set to go off at the next recession: The Fed's balance sheet; A...
As stock prices have recently weakened, I have received some comments regarding the start of a bear market in 2016. To put it into context, bear markets start for one of three major fundamental reasons: War or revolution leading to a permanent loss of capital (think Confederate war bonds, or German panzers smashing through French lines on...
Trend Model signal summary Trend Model signal: Neutral Trading model: Bullish The Trend Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity price. In essence, it seeks to answer the question, "Is the trend in the global economy expansion (bullish) or contraction (bearish)?" My inner...
The study of emerging markets is a useful exercise in examining our assumptions about economies and markets because they sometimes operate by different rules than developed economies. As an example, Bloomberg reported today that the markets are freaking out over the firing of the finance minister: South African markets were thrown into turmoil after President Jacob...
I received a couple of comments to my last weekend post that it was somewhat lacking in a short-term trading outlook (see 2016: Time to get bearish and go "Zero Hedge"?). As my previous view that the US equity market would grind up until year-end hasn't worked out, it would be appropriate to update the...
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