Why the Saudis will either blink…or collapse

As Saudi Arabia`s budget has come under pressure from low oil prices, I see that the Kingdom (KSA) has announced a diversification initiative into IT, healthcare and tourism (via CNBC): Saudi Arabia outlined ambitious plans on Monday to move into industries ranging from information technology to health care and tourism, as it sought to convince...

Bullish or bearish? What’s your time horizon?

Trend Model signal summary Trend Model signal: Risk-off Trading model: Bullish The Trend Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity price. In essence, it seeks to answer the question, "Is the trend in the global economy expansion (bullish) or contraction (bearish)?" My...

A possible generational low in oil and energy stocks

The bad news just doesn't stop coming for oil. It all began when Saudi Arabia had turned on the production spigots to counter growing production from American frackers, and now it has to contend with the geopolitical dimensions of the growing power of Russia and Iran in the Middle East. The calls are growing for...

Buy! Blood is the streets!

Trend Model signal summary Trend Model signal: Risk-off Trading model: Bullish (upgrade) The Trend Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity price. In essence, it seeks to answer the question, "Is the trend in the global economy expansion (bullish) or contraction (bearish)?"...

Explaining the lack of capitulation (and what it means)

Dana Lyons recently wrote a terrific piece about the level of complacency in the current bout of stock market weakness. The SPX had fallen over 9% in two weeks, but the VIX Index was barely challenging its December highs and it was nowhere near the highs set during the August/September selloff.   He found that past...