Mid-week trading update: This morning started off well for the bears - until oil prices began to rally. I wrote on the weekend that while my inner investor was constructive on stocks, my inner trader still believed that downside risk remained. Those views are unchanged. Here is where the SPX stands today. The rally was unable...
Recently, Business Insider featured a chart of long-term equity returns based on data from Bob Shiller. The lesson was, the longer your time frame and the more patient you are, equities win. That`s been a lesson taught to generations. Based on this data, equities has become the foundation of any portfolio for anyone building a...
Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model...
Regular readers recognize that my inner investor is bullish on stocks, though my inner trader remains a little leery and expects further market choppiness (see Profit by thinking like Big Money). Despite my longer term bullishness, I tweeted this morning that I had tactically taken a small, underline the word "small", short position in SPX...
I had been meaning to write about this earlier, but I didn`t find the time. Kyle Bass caused a stir last week with his letter to his investors when he wrote that China was on the verge of a major devaluation and financial blow-up (via Valuewalk): Our research suggests that China does not have the...
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