Mid-week market update: In the short run, the SPX has pulled back and appear to be about to test its 50 day moving average (dma) at 2040, while experiencing a positive divergence on RSI-5. The SPX saw a Golden Cross last week - and the right way to trade these signals is to use...
I recently wrote about my scenario for a market top in 2016 (see My roadmap for 2016 and beyond), which goes something like this: Unemployment is now at 5.0%, which is a point at which the economy historically started to experience cost-push inflation. Inflation edges up, which is already being seen in commodity prices. Initially,...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Imagine the following scene in the not too distant future: The US Navy confronts the PLAN (People's Liberation Army Navy) in the South China Sea. Someone miscalculates and shooting starts and the situation escalates wildly. Eventually, there are three American carrier task forces, accompanied by submarines, along with the fleets of Asian allies like the...
Mid-week market update: There doesn't seem to be much of a point in writing about the technical condition of the market when its likely path is dominated by a binary event like the FOMC meeting this week. So I thought that I would write about how to interpret and react to the FOMC statement instead....
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