Mid-week market update: From a trader`s perspective, this market had been jittery and mainly driven by two themes. The first was the resolution of the uncertainty over the presidential debate that occurred Monday night. The other is the uncertainty over the fate of Deutsche Bank as a symptom of the systemic risk posed by European...
As I write these words before the first presidential debate, expectations have been racheted up for a Trump win and Clinton loss. Here is just one example (via Politico): 'She will have to answer every single question flawlessly, exude gravitas...not cough, wear an acceptable pantsuit, smile enough, be likable, not laugh and have a good...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
The Federal Reserve has spoken (see FOMC September statement). With three dissenting votes on the FOMC, a December rate hike is more or less baked in. The Fed will take a gradual approach to rate hikes, with the median "dot plot" forecasting a December rate hike and two more in 2017. While the...
Mid-week market update: The world is full of surprises. Not only was I beside myself when news of the Bragelina breakup hit the tape, I mistakenly believed that the stock market did not display sufficient fear to form a durable bottom (see the trading comments in Is a recession just around the corner?). Last week,...
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