Mid-week market update: Last weekend, I wrote that while I was intermediate term bullish, I expected some equity market weakness early in the week. The hourly RSI-5 had exceeded 90, which is an extremely overbought reading, which was not sustainable. Even during the January melt-up, such episodes resolved themselves with either a pullback or sideways...
In the wake of my last post about whether USD assets and Treasury paper would remain safe haven and diversifiers in the next global downturn (see Will diversified portfolios be doomed in the next recession), I received a number of questions as to what investors should avoid. There is an obvious answer to that question....
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
This week saw the two examples of the triumph of populism. The Italian election saw the rise the Five Star Movement and Lega Nord, otherwise known as the Northern League. Both are Euroskeptic parties and Lega Nord has an anti-immigrant bias. Meanwhile in Washington, the news of the steel and aluminum tariffs put Trump's America...
Mid-week market update: You can tell a lot about the short-term character of a market by the way it reacts to news. When the news of Gary Cohn's resignation hit the tape after the close on Tuesday, ES futures cratered down over -1%. By the market closed Wednesday, SPX had traced out a bullish reversal...
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