When should you buy gold?

Goldbugs got excited recently when the gold stock to gold ratio turned up sharply after the gold price consolidated sideways subsequent to breaking up from a downtrend. Past episodes have been bullish signals for bullion prices.     On the other hand, the front page of Barron's may also be a contrarian magazine cover bearish...

FOMC preview: Prepare for the hawkish surprise

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...

Surprising conclusions from advanced rotation analysis

Mid-week market update: I have been asked to periodically update my sector leadership analysis as a guide to spot up and coming sector strength. The standard approach is to apply the Relative Rotation Graph (RRG) to the market. As an explanation, RRG charts are a way of depicting the changes in leadership in different groups,...

How to watch for signs of another Lehman Crisis

It has been 10 years since the Lehman bankruptcy, which became the trigger for the Great Financial Crisis (GFC). The financial press has been full of retrospective stories of what happened, and discussions from key players. The GFC was an enormous shock to investor confidence. Ever since that event, many investors have been living with...