I am late on this analysis, but I spent some time on the weekend reading, and re-reading Powell's Jackson Hole speech. Contrary to the market's interpretation, I concluded that his speech was not as dovish as the market thinks. There is much at stake for equity investors. The stock market is already risen to its...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: There was a lot of skepticism in response to my last post (see How many pennies left in front of the steamroller?). Much of it was related to comments relating to positive market breadth. I am in debt to Urban Carmel who pointed out back in May that the Advance-Decline Line tends to...
A reader commented on the weekend, "TBH, being long here sure feels like picking up pennies in front of a steamroller". I agree. While I have been steadfast in my belief of a "Last Hurrah rally" before a significant market top, that scenario is looking far less likely. As the market tests a key resistance...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
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