Mid-week market update: The headlines look dire, and so does the market action. Relative performance analysis shows that defensive sectors have become the leadership, but as the October to December selloff shows, they are coincidental indicators and offer no predictive power as to future market direction. What should you do? Today, I look...
This is the second part of a two part series on the unusual market pattern that we have been undergoing (see part one, Peak fear or Cold War 2.0). While the market may have discounted a substantial amount of the first-order effects of a trade war, the tail-risk of the loss of business confidence in...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: It appears that the stock market is may be range-bound until Trump and Xi meet in Japan in late June. A high level of uncertainty is the order of the day, with short-term direction will be determined by the latest news or tweet. As the chart below shows, the range is defined...
The headlines look ominous. The US has dispatched a carrier task force to the Persian Gulf, and a second one is due to arrive soon. The State Department ordered the evacuation of all non-essential personnel from Iraq: The U.S. State Department has ordered the departure of non-essential U.S. Government employees from Iraq, both at the...
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