It is said that while bottoms are events, but tops are processes. Translated, markets bottom out when panic sets in, and therefore they can be more easily identifiable. By contrast, market tops form when a series of conditions come together, but not necessarily all at the same time. My experience has shown that overly bullish...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Mid-week market update: The mid-week market update is being published a day early because of the shortened trading week due to American Thanksgiving on Thursday. You can tell a lot about market psychology by the way it reacts to news. Early Monday morning (Europe time) and before the market open, a grim Angela Merkel announced...
As American, Canadian and Mexican negotiators meet for a fifth round of NAFTA discussions in Mexico City, CNBC reported that a number of analysts are projecting significantly high odds that the trade pact would fall apart: Jens Nordvig, Exante Data CEO, sent out a warning note Monday that his firm now sees a 30 to...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
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