Mid-week market update: The results of the latest sentiment surveys argue that this is a time for caution. The BoA Global Fund Manager Survey shows cash at a 15-year low. The institutions are all-in on risk. Who's left to buy? A Charles Schwab survey of client accounts show that cash levels are...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Even though it’s still early in the year, my bullish call on gold has worked out well (see 2025 High Conviction Idea: Gold). Gold has reached an all-time high in all currencies. In particular, it broke out to a new high in the Swiss Franc (CHF), which is regarded as a hard currency, and the...
Mid-week market update: The latest update of Bloomberg Intelligence Market Pulse Index shows that it's at manic levels. The market seems to be ignoring tail-risk, which is an increasingly worrisome development. Inflation risk Stock prices have held up remarkably well in the face of worries about DeepSeek, Trump tariffs, geopolitics, and...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
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