Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
I sounded a warning in late January about a possible long-term market top, based on a negative divergence of the 14-month RSI. It wasn’t a “sell everything” signal, but a cautionary sign of a topping pattern. It is said that “bottoms are events, but tops are processes”. That’s because market bottoms tend to...
Mid-week market update: The S&P 500 fell yesterday and briefly kissed its 200 dma while flashing a positive divergence on the 5-day RSI. Was that the bottom? Here is a lesson on how to spot market bottoms, and a review of bottom spotting indicators. Condition indicators First of all, RSI...
Gold has caught a bid against a backdrop of trade war fears. On the other hand, gold ETF AUM is skyrocketing, which is contrarian bearish. Should you jump on the gold momentum train, or fade its rally? Negative seasonality The answer depends on your time horizon. Callum Thomas pointed out that...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
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