Ahead of the Second Gulf War, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld famously referred to “known knowns”, “known unknowns” and “unknown unknowns” when responding to a question about Iraqi weapons of mass destruction. Fast forward to 2025, investors have to contend with a series of known unknowns and unknown unknowns as they consider their investment...
Mid-week market update: Market internals are showing signs of a wash-out. Readings are normalizing after an extreme oversold condition against a backdrop of extreme fear. Stock prices should advance from here. However, the S&P 500 just experienced a "death cross", where the 50 dma falls below the 200 dma. Notwithstanding today's negative surprises from...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Bloomberg’s U.S. chief economist Anna Wong published a chart outlining the impact of Trump’s tariff pivot. Trump raised tariffs on China and cut the “reciprocal tariff rate” to 10% for all others, except USMCA members Canada and Mexico, for 90 days. The resulting weighted tariff rate is not substantially different from the “Liberation Day” rates...
Mid-week market update: Is this Donald Trump's Liz Truss Moment? In the fall of 2022, UK prime minister passed a series of unfunded tax cuts. The bond market rebelled and sold off hard, especially in the long end of the yield curve. The massive sell-off forced a number of "hedged" pension funds into technical insolvency,...
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