Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The “Ultimate Market Timing Model” is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
By now, investors should know about the TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) trade where Trump reverses on one of his initiatives based on the market’s reaction. Former Fed economist Claudia Sahm recently introduced an additional political constraint on Trump’s actions. The Big MAC (Midterms Are Coming) factor has also forced some reversals. I...
Mid-week market update: In case you missed it, the dreaded Hindenburg Omen has reared its ugly head again. In plain English, the Hindenburg Omen is signaled when a market with bifurcated breadth sees a rollover in price momentum. Single day signals tend not to be very useful, but clusters of signals may foreshadow future drawdowns. ...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
I have been an advocate of holding a barbell position of U.S. large-cap growth and EAFE value stocks in equity allocations. More recently, the EAFE value portion has outperformed while the U.S. large-cap growth component has lagged. As a consequence, I am increasingly seeing questions of whether it’s time to rethink the allocation to U.S....
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