Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
This is the second in a series of the opportunities and threats to productivity. This week, I focus on the effects of labour supply on productivity, (see AI Productivity and the Promised Land). I am grateful for the aid and guidance from New Deal democrat for his help in data sourcing and analysis in the...
Mid-week market update: Scheduling notice - I will be traveling for the next 10 days. Barring wild market volatility next week, there will be no mid-week market update next Wednesday, but regular commentaries will be published each weekend. It's always tricky to write a market commentary on the day of the FOMC meeting, as...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
This is the first in a series of the opportunities and threats to productivity. I begin the series with a focus on the productivity effects of AI adoption. There has been a lot of excitement over the productivity-enhancing promise of artificial intelligence. From a policy perspective, productivity is important as it defines the rate...
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