This Will Not End Well, But When?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

Will the Next Fed Chair Matter Much to Policy?

As reporters tried to elicit the Fed’s reaction function from Jerome Powell during the July post-FOMC press conference, Bloomberg’s Michael McKee asked a very different question relating to the juxtaposition of fiscal and monetary policy in the years ahead: McKEE: Do you have concerns about the cost to the government of keeping rates elevated for...

Fresh Highs = Bullish Tape

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

Tariffs: Bark Worse Than Bite?

Q2 earnings season was supposed to be a key test of how the Trump tariffs would affect corporate earnings and margins. The coming week will see the bulk of the S&P 500 by weight report results. So far, the preliminary verdict has been relatively benign. Negative effects from tariffs seem to be the exception rather...