Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
The market is hiding a secret in plain sight. Ever since the “Liberation Day” reciprocal tariff panic, trade war tensions have been in retreat, and the S&P 500 has regained all of its losses and achieved fresh all-time highs. This has happened against a backdrop of continuing uncertainty over tariff levels imposed by the U.S....
Mid-week market update: It's remarkable how resilient the stock market has been in light of the challenges it's facing. The S&P 500 ended an upper Bollinger Band ride last week and it's been consolidating sideways. The newsflow has been mostly negative, and stock prices have been given lots of opportunity to retreat but the index remains...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
I have been bullish on gold for several months (see 2025 High Conviction Idea: Gold). Since that report was published, gold prices have risen over 25% in USD. More recently, it violated its rising trend line in all major currencies except the Japanese yen, which may be a technical warning of a tiring bull. Is...
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