Mid-week market update: Is the bond market tantrum over? Here is the good news. In the wake of tame PPI and CPI reports this week, the 30-year Treasury yield retreated while in a resistance zone (top panel). In addition, there is nothing worse than a failed breakout. The second panel shows the inflation factor...
The Q4 earnings reporting season kicks off Wednesday with reports from major banks and financial companies. This is a good opportunity to review the outlook for the financial sector. What election rally? Let's begin with the bad news. The post-election gains for financial stocks have completely evaporated (top panel). The good news...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
China’s leadership was caught off-guard in 2016 because few people expected Trump to win the election. This time, Beijing has had plenty of warning, and it is far better prepared for Trade War 2.0. The key difference is the divergence in the path of economic growth, as signaled by the bond market. Chinese 10-year...
Mid-week market update: When we last left the stock market on the weekend, the bulls were given a homework assignment (see A failed Santa rally, what now?). The S&P 500 and Russell 2000 had to stage upside breakout through the falling dotted trend line. While the S&P 500 briefly broke out, it retreated yesterday...
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