Seasonal Weakness Ahead?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

Waller’s Gambit

In the wake of the August Payroll Report, let’s review the Fed’s dilemma and the views of Fed Governor Chris Waller, one of the frontrunners to be the next Fed Chair.   Is monetary policy restrictive? Yes, by a number of measures. The Cleveland Fed recently published a study that estimated r-star, or the neutral...

Waiting for the Jobs Report

Mid-week market update: I rhetorically asked last weekend if a bond market tantrum could derail stock prices. I highlighted the weakness in the long Treasury bond ETF (TLT), which has failed to rally despite a recycle of the stochastic from oversold to neutral. TLT weakened on Monday as global bonds sold off, but it rebounded...

Could A Bond Market Tantrum Derail Stock Prices?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...