To Tariff or Not to Tariff, That Is Not the Question

The purpose of the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium isn’t to make decisions about the short-term direction of monetary policy, but to consider the long run implications of policy. It is in that spirit that I consider the short- and long-run implications of Trump’s America First policies.   The primary purpose of Trump’s policy initiatives...

The Stock Market Turns Spicy

Mid-week market update: Is the much anticipated market pullback starting? The U.S. equity market recently saw a violent rotation from growth to value, led by downdrafts in market darlings like NVIDIA and Palantir. Notwithstanding the change in leadership, I have been monitoring the evolution of the VVIX, or the volatility of the VIX, which spiked...

The Problems of Narrow Leadership

Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...

A Rate Cut Buying Stampede

Mid-week market update: Yesterday's July CPI report came in roughly in line with market expectations. Headline CPI was a hair below consensus, while core CPI was a hair above consensus. Even as the bond market greeted the report with caution, the stock market responded with a risk-on stampede in the expectation of a September rate cut....