It’s official, my long-term market timing model has confirmed a buy signal at the end of June. It first flashed a sell signal in late January when the 14-month RSI of the NYSE Composite exhibited a negative divergence when the market made a new high, but RSI didn’t. Now it flashed a buy signal at...
Mid-week market update: I suggested on the weekend that the animal spirits were back. Indeed, the market may be undergoing a broadening in breadth and leadership. NASDAQ 100 stocks are coming off the boil, and med- and small-cap stocks are showing signs of life. That's a welcome short-term sign that this rally may have more...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
So far, the Middle East truce is holding and oil prices have begun to normalize. An Economist article featured analysis from the Ceasefire Group that studied ceasefires between 1989 and 2020 and found about half were successful, one-third collapsed and the outcome of the remainder were inconclusive. Of Middle East ceasefires, about half failed. ...
Mid-week market update: One of the bullish tripwires I outlined on the weekend has triggered (see Buy the Cannons: Exploring the Bull Case). The small cap Russell 2000 ETF staged an upside breakout through the neckline of an inverse head and shoulders pattern, with a measured upside objective of ~250, which represents a potential upside...
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