While I am intermediate-term bullish on stocks, I am also increasingly concerned about the narrowness of market leadership. Market leadership continues to be concentrated in the Magnificent Seven, as the equal-weighted S&P 500, which represents the average stock, lags the index. Here is what this means from top-down macro and a chartist’s viewpoints....
Mid-week market update: The stock market has seen a remarkable recovery. After a -2.7% wipeout on Friday, the S&P 500, the equal-weighted S&P 500, and the Russell 2000 all recovered back above their rising trend lines. Are the bulls back in town? The Bull Case Here is the bull case for a...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Are we in an artificial intelligence investment bubble? That’s becoming the narrative in the financial media. A search on Bloomberg for “AI bubble” showed elevated number of stories, with a peak in January 2025 after the news of the DeepSeek breakthrough. In practice, what does that mean for equities, and the economy? ...
Mid-week market update: As the stock market grinds upward, I am seeing different variations of "it's a little too quiet out there" warnings from market analysts. One example is the growing gap between the implied volatility (IV) of the S&P 500 and the historical realized volatility (HV). Eventually, something has to give. It usually...
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