Mid-week market update: Even as the equal-weighted S&P 500 touched another all-time high today, it was a marginal upside breakout. Here are the bull and bear cases for the near-term outlook. Bull Case Risk appetite indicators are confirming the stock market advance. Credit market risk appetite, as measured by the relative performance...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
This is the third in a series of the opportunities and threats to productivity. This week, I address the issue of climate change (also see AI Productivity and the Promised Land and Will America get old before it becomes Great Again?). The World Health Organization recently issued a joint report with the World Meteorological...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
This is the second in a series of the opportunities and threats to productivity. This week, I focus on the effects of labour supply on productivity, (see AI Productivity and the Promised Land). I am grateful for the aid and guidance from New Deal democrat for his help in data sourcing and analysis in the...
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