Mid-week market update: I am old enough to remember that one of the burning question for the January FOMC meeting was be whether the Fed would make a technical adjustment on Interest Paid on Excess Reserves (IOER) by 5 basis points. (They did). Those were simpler times! The stock market rose relentlessly, day after day,...
I just wanted to put out a quick note this morning. The markets are obviously very chaotic this morning and they have taken on a risk-off tone. The VIX Index has spiked above its upper BB, and its term structure has inverted. Both are indications of high fear. Should traders step in and...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
Remember the story of the Sorcerer's Apprentice from Fantasia (click link for YouTube video)? Mickey Mouse played the role of a sorcerer's apprentice tasked to carry buckets of water. Instead of doing it himself, he stole the sorcerer's hat and animated a broomstick to carry the buckets for him. To speed up the work, he...
Mid-week market update: Bloomberg reported that BAML strategist Michael Harnett wrote a report back on December 12 forecasting a melt-up. He believed the market's gains would be front loaded in 2020. and he projected an S&P 500 target of 3,333 by March 3. The index reached that level intra-day today, and it's still January. Are...
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