Bloomberg’s U.S. chief economist Anna Wong published a chart outlining the impact of Trump’s tariff pivot. Trump raised tariffs on China and cut the “reciprocal tariff rate” to 10% for all others, except USMCA members Canada and Mexico, for 90 days. The resulting weighted tariff rate is not substantially different from the “Liberation Day” rates...
Mid-week market update: Is this Donald Trump's Liz Truss Moment? In the fall of 2022, UK prime minister passed a series of unfunded tax cuts. The bond market rebelled and sold off hard, especially in the long end of the yield curve. The massive sell-off forced a number of "hedged" pension funds into technical insolvency,...
Just a quick update in a day with a fast moving market. Trump's tariffs are eliciting a reaction among key supporters and the real economy. Pittsburgh based Howmet Aerospace, a key supplier to Airbus and Boeing, declared force majeure on its contracts owing to the new tariff regime. Force majeure is a legal practice allows...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
What should investors make of Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, which was characterized as “worst than the worst-case scenario”? Instant analysis from several sources shows that the weighted average tariff rate is now higher than the rates from the Smoot-Hawley era of the 1930s. Trump claims that his tariffs will raise $6 trillion over the next...
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