As the Street parsed Powell’s Jackson Hole speech and obsessed over whether the Fed would raise an additional quarter-point, the annual Fed symposium at Jackson Hole is meant for central bankers to consider Big Ideas which reflect the concerns of the day. The centrepiece of such ideas was usually an academic paper. As an...
Mid-week market update: While I give seasonality only passing importance in trading, it is well known that September is seasonally negative for S&P 500 returns, which Callum Thomas recently documented. Can the stock market escape the negative seasonal pattern in 2023? More downside potential Looking under the hood, market internals are...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Sometimes it’s useful to step back and look at the big picture by ignoring the daily or weekly squiggles of the market. One useful technique of filtering out market squiggles is the point and figure (P&F) chart, which StockCharts describes this way: Point & Figure charts consist of columns of X’s and O’s that represent...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The...
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