Ever since the NYSE Composite monthly MACD flashed a long-term buy signal, I have been monitoring the risks to the bull. Past positive MACD crossovers have signaled long-term resilient equity bull markets and such signals have marked durable advances, which are subject to the normal equity risk of minor corrections without significant bearish episodes. ...
Mid-week market update: I have been calling for a relief rally, followed by a deeper correction (see Why I am both bullish and bearish). The relief rally seems to have arrived as the S&P 500 breached the upper trend line of a falling channel while exhibiting improvements in new 52-week high breadth. How...
Preface: Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend...
Periodically, the market is rattled by a “China is slowing” narrative. As the accuracy of official Chinese statistics can be doubtful, the real-time market reaction indicates nervousness, but no panic. The performance of the equity markets of China and her major trading partners relative to MSCI All-Country World Index (ACWI) shows that their trends are...
Mid-week market update: The S&P 500 became extremely stretched in mid-June when its 14-week RSI exceeded the 90 level. The last two times this happened, the market eventually pulled back and the initial decline was arrested with RSI reached a neutral reading of 50. That 50 target was reached this week, which I interpret as...
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