A correction in time?

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The...

Not your father’s stagflation threat

Stagflation worries are rising. A recent analysis of search activity shows that searches for stagflation have spiked compared to other inflation search terms.     The latest BoA Global Fund Manager Survey also shows that stagflation concerns are rising.     These fears are misplaced. The conventional mechanisms for stagflation are not present. Instead, investors...

Evergrande catastrophe = Lehman Moment?

13 years ago yesterday, Lehman Brothers fell into bankruptcy. Today, the world is watching China Evergrande collapse in a debt spiral. The overly indebted property developer told China's major banks that it won't be able to pay loan interest due Sept. 20. The company has been swamped with protests from individuals who invested in its...

Breadth can show the way

Preface: Explaining our market timing models  We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.   The Trend...