The trend is your friend (breadth, seasonality and sentiment too)

Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model...

Updates on the Brexit, energy and SPX trades

Mid-week market update: Rather than the usual mid-week market technical comment, I thought that I would present updates on a number of trades that I had suggested in the past: How to play the Brexit referendum (published February 29, 2016): Setting up for a trade? A possible generational low in oil and energy stocks (published January 20, 2016):...

The GAAP gap as Rorscbach test

I've been meaning to write on this topic but I hadn't gotten around to it. For several weeks, I have seen warnings about deteriorating earnings quality. The gap between corporate earnings as defined by Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) and operating earnings (earnings without the special bad stuff) has been widening to levels not seen...

Watching the USD for stock market direction

Explaining our market timing models We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on research outlined in our post Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade. The Trend Model...

A shallow pullback?

Mid-week technical update: I wrote on the weekend that I expect that the stock market would continue to rise on an intermediate term basis, but some short-term weakness was likely (see A repeat of the failed Oct/Nov rally of 2015?). What I did not expect was to see a short-term buy signal after the brief...